What are
Disciplined Investment Strategies and more
importantly
why
use them? From his book What Works on Wall Street,
James
O’Shaughnessy wrote, “The price of a stock is still determined by
people.
And as long as people let fear, greed, hope and ignorance clouds
their judgment, they will continue to misprice stocks and provide
opportunities to those who rigorously use simple, time-tested strategies to
pick stocks.” In English he is trying to say that people let emotions get in
the way of good sound decisions when it comes to picking stocks. I would
like to add that letting emotions get in the way of most decisions would
lead to problems.
Disciplined
Investment Strategies remove the human
element by taking a large group of stocks like an index (such as the S&P
500) and screening them down by applying single or multiple disciplined formulas. The logic behind a
disciplined investment formula
driven portfolio is simple, but very effective. The investor does not have
to decide what to buy or sell, or when to do so. The all-important factor
here is that emotions (fear, greed, hope and ignorance) are no longer part
of the equation. By eliminating the “human element”, bad decisions are taken
out of the stock picking and managing process.
Without getting too
technical, the disciplined investment formulas should be given some
consideration here. Picking effective stock portfolios is certainly more
involved than just screening an index down. Some very smart people have
helped in creating the formulas we use. Terms like price to cash flow, price
to sales, market capitalization, earnings momentum and others are the basis
for the resulting portfolios.
Past Performance
There are no crystal
balls to predict the future and past performance is no guarantee of future
results. However, what better tool do we have available to us? We all look
to past performance to help us gauge where we think we should invest our
money. The problem with looking at the
past performance of mutual funds
as compared to our Disciplined Investment Strategies systems is consistency.
Not only have most mutual funds failed to outperform the S&P 500 but, all
too often, their stock selection
process is erratic. Without an
articulated strategy or process, which is consistently adhered to, mutual
fund performance can’t be attributed to anything in specific. If the manager
fails to follow the same disciplined repeatable formula year in and year
out, it would be impossible to determine what drove their successes or
failures. In this example we can clearly understand why the mutual fund
industry is constantly telling us past performance is no guarantee of future
results. How could it be if the selection process varies from year to year?
This is where a disciplined, repeatable
process is needed. Disciplined Investment Strategies do not bend to political
changes, terrorist attacks, technology bubbles or housing bubbles. The
stocks that are in these strategies would be the same because the
disciplined investment process has not changed. We now have a better idea
how markets may react because we know how a specific
strategy performs during a certain time in history. If one strategy did very
well during the late 1990’s and did terrible in the early 2000’s we would
have some idea of what this strategy might do in similar situations.
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